By Clarence L. Donowitz

BEST PICTURE Nominees
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. True Grit
5. Inception
6. Toy Story 3
7. Black Swan
8. 127 Hours
9. Winter’s Bone
10. The Kids Are All Right 

What should win: The Social Network

What will win: The King's Speech

Never mind the fact that there are ten films in the race.  This category is a two-horse race between The Social Network, which has racked up some big prizes this season but, like many star's careers, may have peaked too early, and the surging The King's Speech, which is just the sort of "important" British export that makes Oscar voters stammer.  Many Academy voters feel that if it speaks with a British accent (with or without a stutter), then it must be high art.  Add to that the fortuitous timing of real-life royal melodrama (the craze over the upcoming royal nuptial's) and you have a winner, despite the fact that The Social Network, a fresh tale of connections, creativity, and intellectual property, is the best film of 2010. 

BEST DIRECTOR Nominees
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
3. David O. Russell, The Fighter
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Who should win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Who will win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Black Swan, though driven by a strong lead performance, was a bit of a mess overall; Aronofsky's nod should have gone to Christopher Nolan for Inception.  The Coens are Academy favorites, but this category once again is between The Social Network and The King's Speech.  Fincher showed a steady hand navigating a labyrinthine plot across dozens of settings and this may be one of those rare years where the Best Picture and Best Director winners are split.

BEST ACTOR Nominees
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Who should win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Who will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

This category is probably the strongest lock.  Let's work backwards from a process of elimination: Bardem and Bridges have won Oscars too recently.  Eisenberg is still green and for the delightfully weird, perpetual grad student (and Oscar co-host) Franco, the nomination may be reward enough.  Firth was even more affecting in last year's The Single Man, and for his performance as the stammering King George VI, he will crowned for a touching portrayal at the height of a sterling career.

BEST ACTRESS Nominees
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine 

Who should win: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Who will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

This category is almost a sure-fire bet for Portman, who has received nearly every other award for her portrayal as an obsessive, perfectionist ballerina who sacrifices her sanity for her art.  Portman's blocked, mannered style served her well in this role, but a case could be made for Bening, who has been nominated multiple times and is considered long overdue for an Oscar.  The nomination of Lawrence was well-deserved and warmed this reviewer's heart; her work in Winter's Bone as a rural teenager searching for her meth-dealer father in order to save her family home was star-making and revelatory.  But the most gut-wrenching performance belongs to Williams, who portrayed one half of a disintegrating marriage with uncanny authenticity.  However, she usually operates on the fringes of Hollywood and mainstream accolades will thus likely piroutte to Portman.

 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Nominees
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
4. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town

Who should win: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Who will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

The presence of Ruffalo, who played one of his cookie cutter hip and offbeat dudes, is mystifying; this spot rightfully belongs to one of the excellent supporting actors in The Social Network.  But the inclusion of Hawkes almost makes up for the wasted Ruffalo nomination.  His portrayal of an intimidating and complicated character in Winter's Bone cuts close to the bone.  His was the trickiest performance in this category, but when faced with a twitchy, manic performance by Bale, who dropped an alarming number of pounds to play former boxer Dickie Eklund, there's no contest.  This reviewer prefers the subtle, searing work of Hawkes to the flashy "watch me play a crackhead" antics of Bale, but alas, I haven't gotten an Academy membership.  Yet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Nominees
1. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Who should win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Who will win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Bonham Carter did fine work in a role that was decidedly not too demanding, and the insanely talented Aussie Weaver is probably not well-known enough to American audiences; the nomination is her reward for international recognition.  The presence of Hailee Steinfeld is the result of category fraud.  Her role in True Grit was clearly a leading one, but the studio campaigned for a supporting nomination to increase her odds of winning.  However, the 14-year-old actress was fantastic and more than held her own against her veteran co-stars.  When the Academy throws a curveball, it usually comes in this category (see Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinnie, and Juliette Binoche for The English Patient) and I can see the crusty voters falling for Steinfeld's precocious charms.  Melissa Leo has won many of the lead-up awards, but one might wonder if she will split votes with her co-star Adams.  Voters might also be turned off by her recent controversial and seemingly desperate campaign ads.  A shame really, since her portrayal of a frightening stage mom and manager should be enough to cinch the win without any window dressing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Nominees
1. The King’s Speech
2. Inception
3. The Kids Are All Right
4. The Fighter
5. Another Year

What should win: Inception

What will win: The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan worked on the script for Inception for ten years, and he might receive the Best Original Screenplay award as consolation for being overlooked in the Best Director category.  It would be well-deserved, but the Academy is not in the habit of voting for a film whose plot it cannot decipher.  My money is on a big night for The King's Speech.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nominees
1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. True Grit
4. Winter’s Bone
5. 127 Hours 

What should win: The Social Network

No contest here.  Aaron Sorkin is the poster boy for film adaptation.  He managed to make a movie about computer code fascinating, riveting, and a surprisingly rollicking good time.

What will win: The Social Network